Objectives Exploring the reasonable carrying capacity of grassland in Xinjiang natural protected areas can provide a reference for the conservation management of Xinjiang natural protected areas and the coordinated development of animal husbandry in the region.

Methods This study employed a multi-disciplinary approach to examine the reasonable livestock carrying capacity of grassland in Xinjiang natural protected areas under varying conservation management intensities. It drew upon data from MODIS NPP, land use, vegetation, and distribution of natural protected areas to gain insights into the conservation management intensity of natural protected areas.

Results The results showed that: (1) The available grassland in natural protected areas in Xinjiang was primarily concentrated in forest parks and natural protected areas, representing approximately 77.10% of the total grassland area in natural protected areas. (2) The hay production per unit area (77.99 g/m²) and the total hay production (251 145.66 t) of the grassland in the experimental areas of nature reserves and natural parks were higher than that of the grassland in the core areas and buffer areas of nature reserves (39.35 g/m² and 1 011 899.70 t). (3) After considering the factors of protection and management of natural protected areas, the number of livestock that natural protected areas can accommodate in Xinjiang declined from 5 955 521.00 sheep units to 4 272 997.09 sheep units, and the reasonable carrying capacity declined from 3.08 sheep units/hm² to 2.21 sheep units/hm²; the number of livestock (3781577.38 sheep units) and reasonable carrying capacity (2.91 sheep units/hm²) of grasslands in the experiment area of nature reserves and natural parks were higher than those in the core areas and buffer areas of nature reserves (491 419.71 sheep units and 0.77 sheep units/hm²); among the six types of natural protected areas, the number of livestock (1 991 531.33 sheep units) and the reasonable carrying capacity (3.18 sheep units/hm² ) in forest parks are the highest.

Conclusions In Xinjiang's natural protected areas, the grassland resource supply capacity was higher in the experimental area of nature reserves and natural parks compared to the core areas and buffer areas of nature reserves. Furthermore, the resource supply capacity and livestock carrying capacity of grassland in forest parks are the highest among the six types of natural protected areas. From the perspective of the functional areas of natural protected areas, the experiment areas of nature reserves and natural parks are of particular importance for the coordinated development of traditional animal husbandry in Xinjiang's natural protected areas. When considering the types of natural protected areas, forest parks emerge as pivotal areas.