Abstract:
Objectives To study the current and future changes in suitable habitats for wild yaks in the context of climate change. To this end, we evaluated the vulnerability of habitats, and provided support for the maintenance of the authenticity and integrity of natural ecosystems, as well as the construction of the Kunlun Mountain National Park.
Methods Using an ensemble of species distribution model (BIOMOD2) combined with 15 environmental variables, we evaluated the current (1980－2010) distribution pattern of suitable habitats for wild yaks in the potential area of Kunlun Mountain National Park, as well as the impact of future (2050s and 2080s ) climate change on suitable habitats.
Results (1) Among the 10 models of the BIOMOD2 ensemble species distribution model, Random Forest (RF) had the best simulation effect; The true skill statistical value (TSS) of the combination model was 0.885, and the area under the working characteristic curve (AUC) of the subjects was 0.985, indicating that the simulation outcomes were relatively reliable; (2) The altitude and precipitation in the coldest season were the primary factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for wild yaks; (3) Currently, the suitable habitats for wild yaks were predominantly concentrated in the northwest and central regions of the Kunlun Mountain National Park potential area, with 68.37% of these habitats situated within the national park potential area. By the 2080s (SSP370), the area of suitable habitat for wild yaks was set to increase significantly.
Conclusions The northwest and central potential areas of Kunlun Mountain National Park will provide stable shelters for wild yaks, while new suitable habitats will emerge in high-altitude and high-latitude areas.
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