Objectives To investigate the ecological resilience status of wetland parks in various scenarios and propose a more resilient development model. Taking Lüshuiwan Wetland Park as an example, the study explored the changes in land use and ecological resilience under multiple scenarios in 2027.

Methods Using the CLUE-S model and Markov model, we constructed ecological protection, tourism development, and coordinated development scenarios based on the research area’s construction objectives and upper-level planning. To reveal the future land use situation of the Lüshuiwan Wetland Park in 2027, we used historical trend scenarios as benchmark scenarios. Four scenarios were evaluated and analyzed at the regional scale in combination with the construction of an ecological resilience evaluation model.

Results (1) In terms of the spatial distribution of land use, the distribution positions of each land type in the three scenarios were generally similar, with differences only in the size of the areas occupied by each land type. (2) In terms of land use structure, the changes in land use under three scenarios showed distinct trends. The increase in wetland areas under ecological protection scenarios was significant while the construction area has sharply decreased. In the tourism development scenario, the wetland area has slightly decreased while the construction land has significantly increased. The coordination scenario's overall performance was not outstanding, but it can achieve results in both wetland restoration and park development needs. (3) In terms of ecological resilience, the ecological protection scenario and tourism development scenario were not prominent while the indicators of the coordinated development scenario were the most balanced, with the highest level of ecological resilience.

Conclusions The theory of ecological resilience helps to enhance the risk resistance and recovery ability of wetland parks and should be regarded as a fundamental work in wetland park planning. Research has shown that under ecological protection scenarios, the park landscape was slightly singular and difficult to develop. While under tourism development scenarios, the park could not meet the requirements of future wetland restoration and habitat protection, which was not conducive to the improvement of ecological resilience. The coordinated development scenario could meet multiple goals and showed higher ecological resilience. The results can be used in the planning and decision-making process to assist in improving the park's resilience and enhancing the park's ability to cope with future uncertainties.