周伟业, 田鹏. 渭河源区径流变化特征及其归因分析[J]. 自然保护地,2023,3(2):66−74. DOI: 10.12335/2096-8981.2022072301
引用本文: 周伟业, 田鹏. 渭河源区径流变化特征及其归因分析[J]. 自然保护地,2023,3(2):66−74. DOI: 10.12335/2096-8981.2022072301
ZHOU Weiye, TIAN Peng. Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change in the Source Area of Weihe River[J]. Natural Protected Areas, 2023, 3(2): 66−74. DOI: 10.12335/2096-8981.2022072301
Citation: ZHOU Weiye, TIAN Peng. Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change in the Source Area of Weihe River[J]. Natural Protected Areas, 2023, 3(2): 66−74. DOI: 10.12335/2096-8981.2022072301

渭河源区径流变化特征及其归因分析

Attribution Analysis of Runoff Change in the Source Area of Weihe River

  • 摘要: 受气候变化和人类活动的双重影响,渭河源区的径流日益减少。基于1975—2018年渭河源区武山水文站的水文资料及其周边3个气象站的气象资料,本研究采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、双累积曲线法以及Budyko假设的弹性系数法等多种方法,分析流域内的径流变化趋势及突变特征,揭示引起径流变化的驱动因素,并量化分析驱动因素的影响程度。研究结果表明,1975—2018年渭河源区年平均径流量为4.89亿 m3,呈现显著减小趋势;年降水量为467.43 mm,减少趋势不显著;潜在蒸散发量为811.39 mm,呈现显著增大趋势;渭河源区的径流突变年份发生在1993年。通过对渭河源区径流敏感性分析发现,径流对降雨的敏感性最强,其次是人类活动和潜在蒸散发量,且对三者的敏感性均呈现显著增大趋势。通过Budyko假设的弹性系数法发现,人类活动对径流变化的影响为主要因素,占径流变化量的54.09%,这是由于渭河源区大范围的退耕还林以及其他水土保持措施的实施,显著减少了地表径流的形成。

     

    Abstract: Influenced by climate change and human activities, runoff in the source region of Weihe River has been decreasing. Based on the hydrological data of Wushan Hydrological Station in the source area of Weihe River and the meteorological data of three meteorological stations around it from 1975 to 2018, this study used Mann-Kendall trend test method, double-mass curve method, and Budyko hypothesis elastic coefficient method to analyze the runoff change trend and mutation characteristics in the basin, to reveal the driving factors causing runoff change, and to quantitatively analyze the influence degree of driving factors. The results showed that the annual average runoff in the source area of Weihe River from 1975 to 2018 was 4.89 × 108 m3, showing a significant decreasing trend. The precipitation was 467.43 mm, and the decreasing trend was not significant. Potential evapotranspiration was 811.39 mm, showing a significant increasing trend. The year of runoff mutation in the source region of Weihe River occurred in 1993. Through the analysis of runoff sensitivity in the source area of Weihe River, it has been found that runoff showed the most sensitive to rainfall, followed by human activities and potential evapotranspiration, and the sensitivity to the three showed a significant increasing trend. Through Budyko hypothesis elastic coefficient method, it has been found that the influence of human activities on runoff change was the main factor, accounting for 54.09% of the runoff change. This was due to the large-scale implementation of returning farmland to forest and other soil and water conservation measures in the source area of the Weihe River. The formation of surface runoff has been significantly reduced.

     

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