Abstract:
【Objectives】 To clarify the characteristics of vegetation coverage variation in five national parks from 2000 to 2020 and investigate how climate affects vegetation coverage. 【Methods】 Based on MODIS-NDVI data, trend analysis and Hurst index were used to analyze the spatial-temporal variation characteristics and future change trend of vegetation in five national parks from 2000 to 2020. Temperature and precipitation were taken as influence factors to explore the relationship between vegetation coverage changes and meteorological factors by partial correlation analysis. 【Results】 From 2000 to 2020, the vegetation coverage showed a fluctuating upward trend in all parks, with the fastest growth rate in National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest and the slowest growth rate in Giant Panda National Park. From 2000 to 2020, the vegetation coverage in five parks has mainly improved. In addition, the improved area accounted for more than 70% of the area of each park. The anti-persistence of vegetation changes in five parks has been stronger than persistence in the future, and the change types were mainly from increasing to decreasing, among which the decreasing trend was the most significant in Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park. The variations of vegetation coverage in Three-River-Source and Giant Panda National Park were strongly correlated with precipitation at the interannual level. However, the changes in vegetation coverage in additional parks were mainly affected by temperature. The vegetation growth in Three-River-Source National Park, Giant Panda National Park, Northeast China Tiger and Leopard National Park, National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest, and WuyishanNational Park had a time lag, with a lag of zero, one, zero, and two months on temperature. For precipitation, only National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest showed a lag of one month, while the rest of the parks showed an insignificant lag effect. 【Conclusions】 The vegetation of five national parks has been improved in the last 21 years, showing different spatial and temporal variation characteristics influenced by temperature and precipitation. However, the future vegetation changes showed a strong anti-persistence which needs to be paid more attention to.