Abstract:
This paper made a statistical analysis of the annual, monthly, and daily variation laws of 574 forest fires in Ningbo from 1996 to 2021, as well as spatial distribution characteristics such as geographical distribution, topography, stand types, and stand structure characteristics. The results showed that: from 1996 to 2021, Ningbo forest fires showed a change from low incidence to high incidence and then decreased, which reached the highest peak between 2003 and 2005, and showed a good trend of continuous low incidence in recent years. During the year, from November to next April, forest fires are more concentrated, especially in March and April. There has been a significant correlation in the occurrence of forest fires with spatial factors such as regional forest area, illegal using fire in the wild, distance to the road network, altitude, slope, slope aspect, forest species, forest age, and stand canopy closure. There can be a higher risk of forest fires in regions with larger forest areas, more illegal use of fire in the wild, closer distance to the road network, lower hills and gentler slopes, sunnier slopes, forest margins, pine forests, young and middle-aged forests, and forest stands with a canopy density of 0.2~0.3. The thermal map of historical forest fire in Ningbo generated by Kernel density analysis method indicated three types of high-risk areas which were within the district, between districts, and between cities.